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Ba033	Baltensweiler, W. and Fischlin, A., 1979. The rôle of migration for the population dynamics of the larch bud moth, Zeiraphera diniana Gn. (Lep. Tortricidae). Mitt. Schweiz. Ent. Ges., 52: 259-271. Ba033.pdf Abstract: Moth flight of Z. diniana (defoliator of larch stands) was monitored during the last population cycle by means of pheromone and light traps in an area of approximately 20,000 km2. The relationship between larval density and male moth catch is quantified by means of the power function y = axb. Long range migration over several 100 km may contribute to the synchronization of outbreaks along the alpine arch, but this stochastic form of migration cannot influence the regularity of the cycles. This regularity appears to stem from regional migration phenomena; i.e., moths immigrate annually by positive anemotactic behavior from lower altitudes into the upper region of alpine mountain valleys. A verbal model of migration is outlined in view of simulation studies in the future.
Ba061	Baltensweiler, W. and Fischlin, A., 1988. The larch bud moth in the Alps. In: Berryman, A. A. (eds.), Dynamics of forest insect populations: patterns, causes, implications. Plenum Publishing Corporation, New York a.o., 331-351pp. Ba061.pdf
Fi002	Fischlin, A. and Baltensweiler, W., 1979. Systems analysis of the larch bud moth system. Part I: the larch-larch bud moth relationship. Mitt. Schweiz. Ent. Ges., 52: 273-289. Fi002.pdf Abstract: Cyclic fluctuations in the abundance of the larch bud moth, Z. diniana Gn. (Lep. Tortricidae) were studied in a program which treats the various hypotheses by means of systems analysis. Based on data from the laboratory and the Upper Engadine valley of Switzerland, the hypothesis proposing that the gradation cycles are caused by interaction between the host plant larch and the insect larch bud moth was modeled. In simulation studies the model's behavior was similar to that of the real system. Sensitivity analysis revealed this behavior to be sensitive to the recovery rate of the trees after defoliation. On this recovery process only scanty field data are available. Despite consistence of simulation results and observations, the hypothetical model can not be accepted nor rejected definitively. Because of a cycle of the system lasts about 9 yr, it is not possible to gather the needed measurements on the raw fiber content of the larch needles. By modeling all the hypotheses plus comparing the respective models, a basis is provided to decide unequivocally which hypothesis best explains the real larch bud moth system.
Fi003	Fischlin, A., 1982. Analyse eines Wald-Insekten-Systems: Der subalpine Lärchen-Arvenwald und der graue Lärchenwickler Zeiraphera diniana GN. (Lep., Tortricidae). Diss. ETH No. ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zürich, Switzerland, 294pp. Fi003.pdf Fi003_SMicrofiche.pdf Fi003_SSummary.pdf Abstract: Two hypotheses to explain the population dynamics of the larch bud moth Zeiraphera diniana Gn. in the subalpine larchcembran pine forest of the European Alps have been modelIed. They are: the larch-larch bud moth hypothesis and the migration hypothesis. The latter has two versions: the conglobation and the translocation hypothesis. According to the larch-larch bud moth hypo thesis the regular cyclic fluctuations in the density of the larch bud moth can be explaiI?-ed by the following mechanism: Heavy defoliation of larch trees by larch bud moth larvae results in the production of needles of poor nutritional value for the insects. Once stressed, host plants need several years to recover. When they produce normal needles again, the population of the herbivorous insect increases, and a new cycle starts. According to the migration hypo thesis the population density of larch bud moth is significantly influenced by immigrating and emigrating moths. In the conglobation hypothesis, outbreaks of larch bud moth are triggered and supported by the regular immigration of moths from a large area in which outbreaks rarely occur. In the translocation hypo thesis outbreaks are caused by the immigration of moths originating from an outbreak area. Simulations of the model for the Upper Engadine Valley indicate that the larch-larch bud moth relationship is sufficient to explain most of the dynamics of larch bud moth, especially the asymptoticallystable cycles. Hence" in light of the available data, the larch-larch bud moth hypothesis is preferred over other hypotheses to explain the local dynamics, such as the antagonism and the polymorphism hypotheses. It has been concluded from the sensitivity analysis of the larch-larch bud moth model that the incorporation of these other hypotheses would explain the remaining, minor·differences between the behaviour of the larch-larch bud moth model and the real system. When migration is added to the model its output is slightly more realistic. The translocation hypothesis appears more plausible than the conglobation hypothesis. However, the flight behaviour of larch bud moth is such, that all migration results in nothing more than a m~x~ng of animals within and between natural populations, without remarkable impact on the dynamics of its numbers. Thus migration is not considered to be a fundamental mechanism for the asymptotically stable cycles of larch bud moth. Nevertheless migration is essential for the explanation of the conspicuous resilience of the larch bud moth system. Further simulations were made to test the effects of Bacillus thuringiensis (BT) and Parapheromone treatments on the population dynamics of larch bud moth. BT-treatments allow temporary avoidance of heavy defoliation. However, in spite of all treatments an outbreak occurs sooner or later. After persistent exposure to moderate stress, this leads to an additional hazard for the trees. Thus, not only is loss in wood production the same as without treatment, but also tree mortality even increases. Compared to the high costs of the treatments, these risks may not be outweighed by the small benefit of having suppressed for a few years nothing more than the visible aspects of defoliation. Pheromone treatments look much more promising. However, success depends completely on the treatment of sufficiently large areas with low levels of moth immigration. Despite the fact that it is impossible in reality to eradicate larch bud moth within a whole valley, this has been assumed in some simulations. They demonstrate how remarkable the resilience of the system is: Two years after extinction, the model system behaves as it did before. From this follows that eventual treatments can never be limited to a few years~ they would have to be repeated all the time. If it should ever start, a pest management program with no end has to be faced.
Fi037	Fischlin, A., 1991. Interactive modeling and simulation of environmental systems on workstations. In: Möller, D. P. F. and Richter, O. (eds.), Analysis of Dynamic Systems in Medicine, Biology, and Ecology. Springer, Proc. of the 4th Ebenburger Working Conference, Berlin a.o., 131-145pp. Fi037.pdf Abstract: Many systems dealt with in environmental sciences such as ecology or environmental biology could be easily modelled and efficiently simulated on personal computers or on workstations. Thanks to their graphical capabilities such computers make it possible to model systems interactively, e.g. supported by graphical structure editors, or allow for interactive simulation featuring sophisticated graphical output of the simulation results. However, in practice this potential remains often underexploited, since traditional, simulation software is mostly batch oriented, largely ignores computer science research, and offers rarely the functionality needed for a sensible interactive use. Instead of porting simulation software from main-frames onto workstations we propose new concepts based on Wymore and Zeigler's modeling theory, enhanced by some new interactive user oriented task concepts. This paper presents a scheme called RAMSES for the architecture of a modeling and simulation environment on a workstation particularly suited for the working with environmental systems. Furthermore it reports on some results which have been obtained by implementing portions of the RAMSES architecture, in particular an open and extensible modeling and simulation environment for the two classical model formalisms SM (Sequential Machine), DESS (Differential Equation System Specification) featuring modular modeling. Finally the modeling and simulation of a system from population ecology is presented as an example to illustrate and evaluate some of the concepts of RAMSES in ecological research.
Fi047	Fischlin, A. and Gyalistras, D. and Roth, O. and Ulrich, M. and Thoeny, J. and Nemecek, T. and Bugmann, H. K. and Thommen, F., 1994. ModelWorks 2.2: An interactive simulation environment for personal computers and workstations. Systems Ecology Report, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, 324pp. Fi047.pdf Abstract: ModelWorks is a modelling and simulation environment in Modula-2 specifically designed to be run interactively on modern personal computers and workstations. It supports modular modelling by featuring a coupling mechanism between submodels and an unrestricted number of state variables, model parameters etc. up to the limits of the computer resources. It allows for the formulation of continuous time, discrete time, discrete event models, as well as the free mixing of all these formalisms. Not only does ModelWorks offer the simulationist a handy user interface to experiment interactively with model systems, but also allows the modeller to use ModelWorks' functions via a client interface in any other programming context.
Fi065	Fischlin, A. and Gyalistras, D., 1997. Assessing impacts of climatic change on forests in the Alps. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. Lett., 6(1): 19-37. Fi065.pdf Fi065_S.pdf Abstract: This paper presents a method to project quantitatively the possible impacts of climatic change on mountain forests at high temporal (annual cycle), spatial, and qualitative resolution. It allows linkage from global scenarios simulated by climate models through local climatic scenarios to stand-specific forest models. The method was applied to four representative sites in the Alps using the CCC-GCMII climate model, a statistical procedure to downscale GCM-output to the regional scale, and the forest patch model ForClim. Sharply contrasting forest responses were observed within short distances under the same 2xCO2 scenario of radiative forcing. While some forest simulations produced only small changes in tree species composition, others produced major changes even to the point of a complete disappearance of the forest. In some cases new species assemblages emerged without any analogue under present conditions. The results suggest that some mountain forests are sensitive to a 2xCO2 global change, and that human assistance may be required to help forests to adapt. The proposed method made good use of existing data, integrated current understanding, and appears sufficiently flexible and general to assess impacts of climatic change on any mid to high latitude forests in accordance with IPCC guidelines.
Fi103	Fischlin, A. and Midgley, G. F. and Price, J. T. and Leemans, R. and Gopal, B. and Turley, C. and Rounsevell, M. D. A. and Dube, O. P. and Tarazona, J. and Velichko, A. A., 2007. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. In: Parry, M. L. and Canziani, O. F. and Palutikof, J. P. and van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 211-272pp. Fi103.pdf
Fi153	Fischlin, A., 2009. Berücksichtigen wir in der Klimapolitik genügend Sicherheitsmargen? [Do we have sufficient safety margins in climate policies?]. GAIA, 18(3): 193-199. Fi153.pdf Fi153_S.pdf Fi153_S2.pdf Abstract: Trotz deutlich sichtbarem Wandel im öffentlichen Diskurs zur Klimaänderung, ist er geprägt vom Missbrauch der Unsicherheiten: Beispielsweise dominieren substanzlose Zweifel am menschgemachten Klimawandel immer noch die Auseinandersetzungen oder naturwissenschaftliche Ergebnisse werden überbewertet bzw. verzerrt ausgelegt indem bestehende Unsicherheiten ausgeblendet werden. Dabei bleibt die dringend notwendige Auseinandersetzung um die unabwendbar sich abzeichnenden Risiken, die mit jeder klimapolitischen Entscheidung - welcher Art auch immer - verknüpft sind, auf der Strecke. Ein Diskurs, der unsere Gesellschaft dringend nötig hätte um einen optimalen sowie breit abgestützten Umgang mit den Klimarisiken zustandezubringen und entsprechend genügend Sicherheitsmargen in der Klimapolitik zu beachten. Im Vorfeld der weichenstellenden Konferenz der Vertragsstaaten zur Klimakonvention in Kopenhagen Ende dieses Jahres scheint die Klimapolitik jedenfalls der Frage nach Sicherheitsmargen kaum einen Platz einzuräumen.
Wa152	Warren, R. and Price, J. and Fischlin, A. and Midgley, G. and Santiago de la Nava, S., 2011. Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise. Clim. Chang., 106(2): 141-177. Wa152.pdf Wa152_S.pdf Wa152_S2.pdf Abstract: In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (∆Tg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ∆Tg reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame ''sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change''. Unless ∆Tg is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.
Wa161	Walz, A. and Gloor, C. and B. Allgöwer, Bebi, P. and Fischlin, A. and Lange, E. and Nagel, K., 2008. Virtuelle Welten - Reale Entscheide? Die Alpen im Modellbaukasten. NFP48 Synthese V. Verlag der Fachvereine, Zurich, Switzerland, 125pp. Wa161.pdf Wa161_S.pdf Abstract: Das Ziel der Synthese V ist es, das Potential computergestützter Modelle und Visualisierungen für die Raum- und Landschaftsplanung und den Beitrag des NFP 48 dazu aufzuzeigen. Echte Landschaften sind «träge». Echte Landschaftsveränderungen sind in den meisten Fällen unwiederbringlich und sie bieten keinen Raum für Experimente. Da liegt es nahe, Entwicklungsoptionen und Entscheidungsalternativen in einer «Virtuellen Welt» zu prüfen, bevor endgültige Entscheide getroffen werden. Deswegen gewinnt die virtuelle Repräsentation von Landschaftsprozessen anhand von Modellen und Visualisierungen immer mehr Bedeutung für die Planung.