Article:

Price, B., Isenegger, D., Allgöwer, B. & Fischlin, A., in prep. Spatio-temporal 
        modelling of Larch bud moth in the European Alps: The importance of data resolution.
        Ms. submitted to Landscape Ecol., 39pp.

Abstract:

Spatial scale and in particular grain (as an aspect of scale) of input data are likely to influence results of ecological models significantly. While high resolution input data may be required to make predictions and model processes at high spatial grains, there is likely an optimum spatial resolution to achieve most accurate model results depending on the ecological process being modelled. In this study we investigate the influence of an increase in spatial grain within the same spatial extent on the ability of a population dynamics model of larch bud moth to predict observed population dynamics within the Upper Engadine valley in the Swiss Alps. Our results demonstrate that modelling larch bud moth at a higher resolution results in minor but insignificant improvements in accuracy of prediction of actual larval densities. Increasing the input data resolution of a given model does not provide greater ability to predict spatial patterns at the local scale, and spatial patterns can be predicted more accurately with a model with a coarser spatial grain of input data.

Full text 2 MB