Article:

Price, B., Isenegger, D., Allgöwer, B. & Fischlin, A., in prep. The influence of 
        orography on Larch bud moth migration at the valley scale. Ms. submitted to Oikos, 33pp.

Abstract:

Spatio-temporal patterns of insect population densities, for instance, spatial synchrony in population cycles, have been observed at different scales for several species and appear to be related to distinct phenomena of spatial and/or biological nature. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that migration processes determine the observable spatio-temporal synchrony in population dynamics of larch bud moth at the valley scale. We explore the effect of orography at a finer resolution on modelled potential dispersal ranges of larch bud moth by incorporating a higher resolution GIS based migration model with a coarser resolution population dynamics simulation model. Modelled migration paths were affected considerably by inclusion of orography compared to predecessor models that ignored orographical effects. Our results demonstrate that geographical features such as orography are of importance for determining larch bud moth migration paths and resultant spatio-temporal population dynamics.

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