Article:

Nemecek, T., Derron, J.O., Fischlin, A. & Roth, O., 1995. Use of a crop growth 
          model coupled to an epidemic model to forecast yield and virus infection 
          in seed potatoes. In: Haverkort, A.J. & MacKerron, D.K.L. (eds.), Potato 
          Ecology and Modelling of Crops Under Conditions Limiting Growth. Kluwer 
          Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp. 281-290.

Abstract:

Pathosystems of vector-borne plant viruses consist of the elements viruses, vectors and plants, influenced by man and the natural environment. Most virus epidemic models emphasize the importance of vectors and viruses, but do not consider the role of the plants.

The model "EPOVIR" is the fIrst virus epidemic model coupled to a crop growth submodel, which for his part is coupled to a soil water balance submodel. The two submodels are used in three ways: tuber yield and tuber size are calculated, the physiological age of the leaves and the drought stress are used to calculate the susceptibility to virus infections ("age resistance") and fInally, the fraction of soil covered by the canopy is needed to calculate landing rates of the vectors in the potato fIeld. Since the rate of virus spread is a function of plant physiology and phenology as simulated by the crop submodel, the epidemic should react appropriately to changes in plant growth, caused by man or the environment. As an example we show how planting density influences virus infection.

The model EPOVIR is integrated in the decision support system "TUBERPRO", which forecasts tuber yields graded by size and the infection of the tubers by PVY and PLRV. It supports optimization of haulm killing dates in the seed potato production. The system calculates expected seed yield and the probability that virus infection remains below the tolerance limit used in seed certifIcation. The combination of the two factors gives the expected certifIed seed yield, which can subsequently be optimized.

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