Article:

Gyalistras, D. & Fischlin, A., 1995. Experience with the derivation of 
        climate scenarios in the Alpine region. In: J. Bartholy (ed.), Proceedings 
        of a Workshop on "Regional Climate Change in Central-East Europe". 
        Budapest, Hungary; Nov. 28-30, 1994, Eötvös L. University, pp. 50-56.

Abstract:

We investigated the climatic input requirements of four selected climatic change impact case studies in the Alpine region, dealing with the distribution of plant species, potential natural forest vegetation, forest succession, and low-elevation grassland-ecosystems, respectively. Then we analyzed the currently used methods to provide the required climatic inputs in the form of climatic change scenarios, as well as the choice of the most appropriate method for a particular type of application. We argue that arbitrary adjustments and past climatic change analogues are suitable to obtain ftrst iterations of climatic change scenarios, whereas, after reftnement of the impact models, downscaling techniques or direct numerical modeling should be used. The very detailed and likewise diverse climatic input requirements of the impact case studies demonstrated the need to derive scenarios in an application-specific manner. The capability of a statistical downscaling technique to cover at reasonable expenses both, high-resolution spatial, as well as long-term temporal aspects of climatic change, was demonstrated with two examples. The successful application of the downscaling technique to the climatically complex Alpine region suggests its potential usefullness for other mid-latitude regions of the globe as well.

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