Article:

Gyalistras, D., von Storch, H., Fischlin, A. & Beniston, M., 1994. Linking 
        GCM-simulated climatic changes to ecosystem models: case studies of 
        statistical downscaling in the Alps.  Climate Research, 4(3): 167-189.
	doi: 10.3354/cr004167

Abstract:

According to the requirements of various ecosystem models, at each location 17 seasonal statistics related to daily temperatures, precipitation, sunshine duration, air humidity and wind speed were considered. Year-to-year variations of the local variables were linked by means of Canonical Correlation Analysis to simultaneous anomalies in the North Atlantic/European sea-level pressure and near-surface temperature fields. The analysis was performed for the period 1901 to 1940, separately for each season and location. In all cases, physically plausible statistical models were found which quantified the local effects of changes in major circulation patterns, such as the strength of westerly flow in winter and of large-scale subsidence in summer. The established statistical relationships were applied to anomaly fields as simulated by the Hamburg fully coupled atmospheric/oceanic ECHAM1/LSG GCM under increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The procedure yields time-dependent, internally consistent, and regionally strongly differentiated climatic change estimates for several important ecosystem inputs, at a spatial resolution far above the resolution of present GCMs.

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