Article:

Fuhrer, J., Beniston, M., Fischlin, A., Frei, C., Goyette, S., 
	Jasper, K. & Pfister, C., 2006. Climate risks and their 
	impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. Clim. 
	Change, 79(1-2): 79-102. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6

Abstract:

There is growing evidence that as a result of global climate change some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The aims of this paper are: (i) to describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on resulting from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures; (ii) to discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Linking global change scenarios to extremes in the Alpine region provides improved, quantitative scenarios of future regional changes. Although small-scale patterns differ among models, regional climate-features are reasonably well captured. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and of loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, the risk for constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves. This increases the risk of loss of yield and farmersÕ income, and of forage quality due to drought, as observed in 2003. In forests, the frequent occurrence of dry years accelerates the replacement of sensitive tree species, and reduces carbon stocks. Historically, storm damage was the major disturbance in forest, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century increases the risk of windthrow. Data from storm 'Lothar' in 1999 revealed that the magnitude of windthrow is patchy and depends on exposure, stand composition and tree age, and soil characteristics. Large-scale windthrow can cause short-term reductions in market prices for timber, and long-term shifts in biodiversity, carbon stocks, or protection of slopes. Possible measures to maintain goods and services of agricultural and forest ecosystems are discussed, but is concluded that more frequent extremes are likely to have more severe consequences than progressive changes in means because effects of individual events could overlap with recovery from previous events. To effectively decrease the risk for social and economic impacts will require long-term adaptive strategies in agriculture and silviculture, investments into preventive measures, and new insurance concepts.

Full text 900KB       doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6