Article:

Bugmann, H. & Fischlin, A., 1996.  Simulating forest dynamics in a complex 
        topography using gridded climatic data.  Climatic Change, 34: 201-211.
	doi: 10.1007/BF00224631

Abstract:

The forest model FORCLIM was used to evaluate the applicability of gap models in complex topography in the European Alps. Forest dynamics were studied both under current climate as well as under four prescribed 2 X CO"SUB 2" scenarios of climatic change obtained from General Circulation Models. Under current climate, FORCLIM produces plausible patterns of species composition in space and time, although the results for single grid cells sometimes are not representative of reality due to the limited precision of the climatic input data. Under the scenarios of climatic change, three responses of the vegetation are observed, ie afforestation, gradual changes of the species composition, and dieback of today's forest. Widely differing species compositions are obtained suggesting that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climatic change. Simulation studies must not be interpreted as predictions of the future fate of forests, but as means to assess their sensitivity to climatic change.

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